Global Food Security Crisis Intensifies: Increasing Inflation, Trade Barriers, and World Bank Actions

Latest Food Security Data – January 21, 2025

Food price inflation remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. Recent data from September to December 2024 shows that 72.2% of low-income countries are experiencing inflation rates above 5%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points since the last update on December 13, 2024. In contrast, 43.5% of lower-middle-income countries have seen a decrease of 3.2 percentage points, while 38% of upper-middle-income countries report an increase of 5.0 percentage points. In high-income countries, 7.4% face higher inflation rates, up by 3.5 percentage points. Notably, in real terms, food price inflation exceeds overall inflation in 43.5% of the 161 countries for which data is available.

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Since the last update in December 2024, the indices for agricultural, cereal, and export prices have increased by 3% and 4%, respectively. Maize prices surged 9%, whereas wheat prices dropped 2%. Rice prices have remained unchanged since the last update. Year-over-year, maize prices have risen by 2%, while wheat and rice prices have fallen by 10% and 16%, respectively. Compared to January 2020, maize prices are 24% higher, wheat prices have decreased by 3%, and rice prices are up by 26%. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has released the 2024 State of Agricultural Commodity Markets report, exploring the intricate relationships between food trade, diets, and nutrition. It underscores how global food trade influences dietary choices and health outcomes. The report asserts that trade is crucial in moving food from surplus regions to those in need, improving global food security by stabilizing supplies and prices. Nonetheless, the rapid globalization of food markets raises essential concerns about negative impacts, including the depletion of natural resources, growing inequality among resource-poor farmers, and an increase in the consumption of energy-dense, low-nutrition foods. These trends may further worsen dietary habits and health outcomes.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reports in its Global Humanitarian Overview 2025 an alarming situation regarding global food security, with more than 280 million people facing acute hunger daily. This report underscores the connection between food security and more significant humanitarian challenges, calling for a collective global response to tackle the impacts of food insecurity.

The World Bank details noteworthy advancements and aspirational strategies for ensuring global food security and fostering sustainable agriculture. The blog underscores the Bank's distinctive capability to drive transformation, positioning it as the largest financer of agriculture and food initiatives in developing nations. Meanwhile, the International Food Policy Research Institute discusses the challenges of gauging and overseeing global food networks. The blog stresses the need for coordinated, advanced tools to capture these systems' intricate interactions and trade-offs effectively.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food and fertilizer trade restrictions put in place by countries to increase domestic supply and reduce prices. As of January 2025, 17 countries have implemented 22 food export bans, and eight have implemented 12 export-limiting measures.

Addressing Food Insecurity by the World Bank

Our initiatives for food and nutrition security currently reach over 90 countries. They include both urgent interventions, such as improving social protection, and long-term strategies focused on boosting productivity and adopting climate-smart agricultural practices. The Bank's initiatives are expected to benefit 296 million people. Here are a few examples:

  • In Honduras, the Rural Competitiveness Project series (COMRURAL II and III) aims to create entrepreneurial and job opportunities while promoting a climate-resilient and nutrition-focused approach in agri-food value chains. The program has positively affected around 6,287 rural small-scale producers—33% women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous—who are involved in coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other products. It has improved market connections and encouraged the adoption of advanced agricultural technologies, leading to the generation of 6,678 new jobs.

• In Honduras, the Corredor Seco Food Security Project (PROSASUR) aims to improve food security for poor and at-risk rural families living in the Dry Corridor. So far, the project has aided 12,202 highly vulnerable households through initiatives like nutrition-focused agricultural subprojects, food security strategies, community nutrition plans, and education on nutrition and hygiene. Among the beneficiaries, 70% of children under five and their mothers now achieve a dietary diversity score of at least 4, meaning they consume a minimum of four different food groups.

• The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa aims to strengthen the region’s food systems and address escalating food insecurity. Now entering its third phase, the program will improve inter-agency responses to food crises while enhancing both medium- and long-term initiatives. These include promoting resilient agricultural practices, sustainable natural resource development, expanded market access, and prioritizing food systems resilience within policymaking.

• A $95 million credit from IDA for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) aims to enhance the commercialization of specific agricultural value chain products while offering prompt and practical support during qualifying crises or emergencies.

• A $200 million IDA grant for Madagascar aimed at enhancing decentralized service delivery, improving water supply, restoring and safeguarding landscapes, and bolstering the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-affected ‘Grand Sud’. 

• A $60 million credit for the Integrated Community Development Project, which engages with refugees and host communities across four northern provinces of Burundi to enhance food and nutrition security, develop socio-economic infrastructure, and promote micro-enterprise growth using a participatory approach.

• The $175 million Sahel Irrigation Initiative Regional Support Project is enhancing resilience and increasing productivity in agricultural and pastoral activities across Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. Over 130,000 farmers and pastoral community members benefit from various small and medium-sized irrigation efforts. This initiative is developing a portfolio of viable irrigation investment projects covering approximately 68,000 hectares, focusing on medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.

• The $50 million Emergency Food Security Response project has provided 329,000 smallholder farmers in the Central African Republic with seeds, farming tools, and training in agricultural and post-harvest techniques to enhance crop yields and improve resilience against climate and conflict-related challenges.

• The $15 million Guinea Bissau Emergency Food Security Project aims to boost agricultural production and enhance food access for vulnerable families. As part of the national vaccination initiative, more than 72,000 farmers have been provided with drought-resistant, high-yield seeds, fertilizers, agricultural tools, and livestock vaccines. Additionally, 8,000 at-risk households have benefited from cash transfers to buy food and combat food insecurity.

• The $60 million Accelerating the Impact of CGIAR Research for Africa (AICCRA) project has positively impacted nearly 3 million African farmers, with 39% being women, by providing essential climate-smart agriculture tools and information services in collaboration with the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR). These resources are assisting farmers in boosting production and enhancing resilience amid the climate crisis. In Mali, research indicated that farmers who followed recommendations from AICCRA-supported RiceAdvice achieved an average yield increase of 0.9 tons per hectare and an additional income of US$320 per hectare.

• The $766 million West Africa Food Systems Resilience Program aims to enhance readiness for food insecurity and strengthen resilience in West Africa's food systems. This initiative expands digital advisory services for agriculture and food crisis prevention and management, improves the adaptive capacity of agricultural actors, and invests in integrating and trading regional food markets to bolster food security. Furthermore, an additional $345 million is in preparation for Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

• A $150 million grant will support the second phase of the Yemen Food Security Response and Resilience Project, aimed at combating food insecurity while enhancing resilience and safeguarding livelihoods.

• An additional $50 million grant for Tajikistan will help alleviate the impacts of food and nutrition insecurity on households and improve the resilience of the agriculture sector overall.

• A $125 million project in Jordan aims to strengthen the agriculture sector by improving its climate resilience, competitiveness, and inclusivity, while also guaranteeing food security in the medium to long term.

• A $300 million initiative in Bolivia is designed to bolster food security, enhance market access, and encourage the adoption of climate-smart agricultural methods.

• A $315 million loan will support Chad, Ghana, and Sierra Leone in fortifying their defenses against food insecurity and improving the resilience of their food systems.

• A $500 million initiative to bolster food security and resilience in Egypt, focusing on ensuring that impoverished and vulnerable households have reliable access to bread, enhancing the country’s ability to withstand food crises, and promoting reforms aimed at improving nutrition. 

• A $130 million loan for Tunisia to alleviate the impacts of the Ukraine conflict by financing crucial soft wheat imports and providing emergency assistance to support barley imports for dairy production, as well as seeds for smallholder farmers ahead of the planting season.

In May 2022, the World Bank Group collaborated with the G7 Presidency to establish the Global Alliance for Food Security. This initiative seeks to promote swift and coordinated responses to the growing global hunger crisis. The Alliance has created the publicly available Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard, offering timely information to enable both global and local leaders to better coordinate policies and financial strategies to tackle the food crisis.

On February 8, 2023, leaders from the FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, WFP, and WTO issued a Third Joint Statement. The statement emphasizes the need for urgent action to avert a further decline in food and nutrition security. Key actions recommended include: (i) addressing hunger hotspots, (ii) improving trade and market functionality and bolstering the private sector's role, and (iii) reforming harmful subsidies through careful targeting and efficiency. Countries are urged to balance immediate interventions with longer-term resilience measures as they tackle this crisis.